December 10, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 0-1c,
🌱soybeans are down 2-3c,
🍞wheat is down 0-1c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.34-$0.35,
💲US Dollar is down .02-.03
-FOMC meeting will wrap up today. Trade is expecting a 25-basis cut in interest rates.
-USDA increased corn exports by 125 million bushels yesterday and ending stocks on corn are now at 2.029 billion bushels.
-USDA left the soybean balance sheet alone yesterday.
-USDA did not adjust South American corn and soybean production estimates.
-Argentina is lowering their export tax on grain and products by 1-2%.
-CGTC announced today that they will speed up their release of the COT catch up reports and should be up to date by the end of December.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.36 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.47 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.62 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.67 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.12 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.02 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.41 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.26 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.34 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
USDA increased their annual export projection number by 125 million bushels, estimating this year’s exports to come in at 3.2 billion bushels. What is interesting is the USDA decided to leave the feed/residual number alone this month, but many traders are expecting the January 12th report to see a yield cut along with a reduction in feed/residual. I think when the dust settles on adjusting the crop size lower and reducing the feed/residual number, the corn ending stocks will still remain around 2 billion bushels. World ending stocks were also lowered this month down to 279.15 MMT. March corn futures ended the day 4c higher and back above the 200-day moving average. We will see if we can get any follow through to the upside now that we are back above the 200-day moving average.
The USDA made no changed to the soybean balance sheet. Traders thought we could see a small reduction in exports thus giving us a higher ending stocks, but the USDA elected to make those changes in the January report. Rumors of China buying 8 cargoes of soybeans from the U.S. were circulating in the market today and that still wasn’t enough to get the beans to trade higher. January soybeans look poised to head down and fill the gap left from October 24th at $10.63.
The USDA did not make any changes to the wheat balance sheet in their December report. The World ending stocks did see a slight increase in ending stocks and that is a trend we have been noticing. March Kansas City wheat is forming a “wedge” pattern and looking to breakout in either direction. A breakout to the downside would push us back down to our lows around $5.00. A breakout to the upside would push the futures up to the $5.50 area.
The post AgMarket.Net Early Morning Market Analysis 12/10/25 appeared first on AgMarket.Net®.
