December 16, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is down 2-3c,
🛢️crude oil is down $1.02-$1.03,
💲US Dollar is down .08-.09
-NOPA crush for November come in at 216.041 million bushels vs expectations of 220.7 million bushels.
-Soybean oil stocks rose to 1.513 billion pounds vs estimates of 1.36 billion pounds.
-Export inspections were at the top end for corn and wheat again while soybeans were below expectations.
-Weather is a non-event for South America crop production at this time.
-China bought a few more soybeans in a flash sale announced yesterday. We also saw 150,320 mt of corn sold to unknown destination.
-January soybeans are working on filling the gap left from October 24th.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to lower trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.37 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.46 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.68 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.92 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $11.03 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.22 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the October 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.23 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures started out the day under pressure from soybeans and wheat but managed to close out the day just 1-2c lower. Strong export sales inspections were the highlight yet again. Year to date, corn export inspections are 69% ahead of last year and we need to average 56.3 million bushels each week through the end of August to meet USDA projection of 3.2 billion bushels. Last year from this week forward, we averaged 56.9 million bushels. March corn futures are trading below $4.40, which they have not traded below that level too much since putting in our harvest low at $4.25 1/2. Corn should find good support very soon.
NOPA crush was a bit disappointing yesterday. Trade was looking for the November crush to come in at 220.7 million bushels, but they come out with 216.041 million bushels. Last month we had an all-time high crush at 227.647 million bushels. China did purchase another 136,000 mt of soybeans from the U.S., however weekly export inspections were below trade estimates and are running about 46% less than 1 year ago. We need to ship out 29.1 million bushels per week to achieve USDA export projection of 1.635 billion bushels. January soybeans filled part of the gap left back from October 24 and are trading 1-2c higher this morning. I would think the market would fill the rest of the gap on January soybeans and then consolidate for a bit.
March Kansas City wheat is trading lower for the 5th day in a row and lower for the 7th day of the last 8 trading days. Export inspections were strong yesterday, at the top end of expectations. However, once the March Kansas City wheat futures broke support at $5.19 1/2, we saw more selling emerge. March Kansas City wheat futures look to be headed to test support around the $5.00 area.
The post AgMarket.Net Early Morning Market Analysis 12/16/25 appeared first on AgMarket.Net®.
