December 18, 2025
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 0-1c,
🍞wheat is up 1-2c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.09-$0.10,
💲US Dollar is up .15-.16
-EIA report was friendly as we saw a 157,000 draw on ethanol stocks.
-Export flash sales announced yesterday saw China buying U.S. soybeans and Mexico buying more U.S. corn.
-March corn futures bounced off support of the 100-day moving average while January soybeans held the 200-day moving average support.
-Farmer selling is minimal with basis levels steady to a bit firmer.
🐂🐻 Look for a mixed to higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.37 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.46 1/2 which is the 200-day moving average.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.52 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.61 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
January soybeans – Support comes in at $10.54 3/4 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $10.80 which is the 10-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.84 which is the 200-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.10 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.03 1/4 which is the October 21st low. Resistance comes in at $5.18 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average.
Where do we go from Here:
March corn futures closed below the 100-day moving average for 1 day and are back trading above that level. EIA reported that we saw a draw in ethanol stocks and this was after a record weekly production. The farmer is absent from selling any more corn at these levels so I would expect basis levels to firm up in some areas of the U.S. Mexico was in buying some more U.S. corn and there are rumors that South Africa bought corn from the U.S. yesterday as well. My thoughts on the corn market still have not changed and look for March futures to trend between $4.35 and $4.50.
January soybeans filled the gap down at $10.63 and followed through a little lower yesterday. Once January futures hit the 200-day moving average, we saw some buying surface. China bought a few more soybeans from the U.S. yesterday and rumors are China has purchased close to 9 MMT of the 12 MMT of soybeans they agreed to buy from the U.S. Basis levels and spreads remain steady as the farmer is not interested in selling any soybeans at these prices. I think we will have to get back above $11.00 futures to get the farmer engaged in selling again.
March Kansas City wheat futures tested support at $5.03 1/2 and held. Fresh news in the wheat market is hard to come by. The U.S. Dollar has been trending lower lately and that should help make the U.S. more competitive. However, no matter how cheap the U.S. wheat prices get, it seems we always face stiff competition out of the Black Sea region.
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