OMAHA, Nebraska — For only the second time in 2025, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above growth neutral 50.0, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for December increased to 50.1, its highest reading since July 2025, and was up from November’s 44.0. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Weak agriculture commodity prices and high input costs for grain producers continue to restrain economic activity in the 10-state region,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.
When asked to identify the most effective policy changes to boost farm income, half of the bank CEOs named the reduction of farm tariffs and trade restrictions as the most effective or useful. Fewer than one in five named the passage of a five-year Farm Bill, and almost the same share identified the recent $12 billion farm aid program as a top priority.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. said, “Low grain prices and higher input cost continue to plague our area farmers. The Trump $12B payment to producers will help but is not a cure.”
Jeffrey Gerhart, former Chairman of the Independent Community Bankers Association said, “Tariffs continue to be a negative factor for the farming sector. We’ve worked hard to build good trading relationships with our trading partners across the globe, only to see it torn apart in less than twelve months.”
Farming and ranchland prices: For only the second time in the past 20 months, farmland prices expanded above growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index improved to 52.5, its highest level since April 2024, and was up from 43.2 in November.
Bankers reported that farm loan delinquencies expanded by only 1.6% over the past six months. “As the farm economy has weakened significantly over the past two years, farm loan delinquencies have remained virtually flat. Even so, one-third of bankers indicated that their banks had tightened credit standards,” said Goss.
According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first nine months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, fell from $8.7 billion in 2024 to $8.4 billion in 2025, for a decline of 3.6%. Exports of agriculture and livestock for the nine-month period to the region’s major trading partner, Mexico, advanced by 2.1%, while the export of agriculture and livestock to China plummeted by 87.6%.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slightly declined to a very weak 15.0 from November’s 15.1. “This is the 28th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,” said Goss.
Banking: The December loan volume index advanced to 71.4 from November’s 64.6. The checking deposit index improved to 69.0 from 58.3 in November. The region’s index for certificates of deposits (CDs) improved to 52.4 from November’s 47.9. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts have weakened CD purchases with the index standing at 60.0 three months earlier.
Hiring: The new hiring index for December sank to 45.0 from November’s 49.5. Job gains for non-farm employers have been soft for the last several months.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The December confidence index rose to 40.9, its highest reading since January of this year, and was up from 32.0 in November. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.
Home and retail sales: December home sales slumped to a weak 42.9 from November’s 43.8. Regional retail sales rebounded to a solid 54.8 from 41.7 in November.
Gregory R. Hohl, CEO and Board Director of Wahoo State Bank in Wahoo, Neb. said, “Interest rates are definitely impacting housing starts and sales along with higher insurance premiums and property tax obligations. This would be a third year of shortfalls with our farmers and does not bode well for many to continue.”
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and the late Bill McQuillan, former Chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.
