January 12, 2026
At this hour:
🌽Corn market is up 1-2c,
🌱soybeans are up 4-5c,
🍞wheat is up 6-8c,
🛢️crude oil is down $0.50-$0.52,
💲US Dollar is down 37-38 points
-It is report day! USDA will release its Crop Production report at 11:00 am CST.
-Key numbers to watch: Corn yield estimated at 184.0 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre.
-Other key numbers to watch will be the U.S. ending stocks. Corn is estimated to come in at 1.980 billion bushels and soybeans are estimated to come in at 303 million bushels.
-Weather is good in South America. There is some potential dryness setting up for Argentina during the last half of January.
-Gold and silver are back making new all-time highs here this morning.
🐂🐻 Look for a quiet report ahead of the release of the USDA report. Then we will trade the USDA report numbers at 11:00 am CST.
Support/Resistance:
March corn – Support on March corn is at $4.40 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.53 which is the December 26th high.
July corn – Support comes in at $4.55 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.66 1/4 which is the December 26th high.
March soybeans – Support comes in at $10.38 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.67 1/4 which is the 200-day moving average.
July soybeans – Support is at $10.64 3/4 which is the low from January 2nd. Resistance is at $10.88 1/2 which is the 20-day moving average.
March Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.08 1/4 which is the January 2nd low. Resistance comes in at $5.36 which is the high from December 26th.
Where do we go from Here:
What will the USDA say today? The yield and the U.S. ending stocks are the 2 key numbers I am watching along with all the other numbers. Regarding the ending stocks, what will USDA with the feed/residual demand? Currently they are still estimating a 550-600 million bushels increase in feed/residual from last year. That seems awful strong. The national corn yield will be another key number to watch. The trade is expecting a 2 bushel per acres decrease but last year we got a 3.8 bushel per acre decrease. Will we get a surprise with even a bigger yield drop? We had a lot of questions about the Iowa and Illinois corn crops this year. Once we get the number at 11:00 am. CST we will trade those numbers for about an hour and then we will get back to our current fundamentals. Demand for U.S. corn remains very strong and Brazil is just gearing up to plant their safrinha corn crop.
I find it interesting that the trade is only looking for a small adjustment lower on the national soybean yield. The trade is looking for a modest 0.3 bushel per acres decrease in yield resulting in keeping the U.S. ending stocks on soybeans around the 300-million-bushel mark. I think if there is one area we could see a surprise it is a bigger yield reduction lower on the national soybean yield. Last year we saw a 1 bushel per acre drop and that could happen again. Most farmers I talked to across the U.S. were a bit disappointed in their soybean yields. However, if we do see a larger yield reduction, that would allow the USDA to cut their export number for the year resulting in keeping the carryout still around the 300 million bushels mark. Outside of the USDA report numbers today, Brazil looks to dry out a bit the next 2 weeks and that should speed up soybean harvest, but Argentina could get real dry by the last week of January. We will continue to monitor that situation. For today, all eyes will be on the USDA report numbers.
Wheat prices are breaking out to the upside here this morning. Tensions in the Black Sea area continue to linger and now we are watching the weather in the U.S. in the southern wheat plains. With wheat futures above the 100-day moving average, this is causing the Funds to buy back some of their short positions. Last Friday the COT report still showed the Funds short 142,000+ contracts of all wheat. Traders today will be anxious to see what the winter wheat seeding will be as the trade is looking for a 700,000 acre drop from last year. It would not surprise me to see a bigger drop in wheat acres as the profitability is just not there on the wheat.
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