March 10, 2026
At this hour:
Corn market is down 3-4c,
soybeans are down 3-4c,
wheat is down 5-6c,
crude oil is down $6.10-$6.11,
US Dollar is down 55 points
-President Trump said the war with Iran could be over very soon, this caused crude oil to selloff.
-President Trump also threatened Iran that ships and tankers need pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely, otherwise the U.S. may take over the Strait of Hormuz.
-Weekly export inspections were within or above trade estimates. Corn saw a slight pullback from last week but still maintained a strong week of inspections.
-USDA Crop Production report will be out this morning at 11:00 AM CT. U.S. ending stock estimates courtesy of Reuters are as follows: corn 2.156 billion bushels, soybeans 347 million bushels and wheat 922 million bushels.
-Trader are looking for a slight reduction in the Brazil crop estimates as well.
Look for a lower trade today as energy prices trend lower.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.48 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.73 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.77 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.33 3/4 which is the high from March 9th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.31 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.72 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.88 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
Like I mentioned yesterday, this rally was all about crude oil and energy prices. President Trump said yesterday afternoon that the war with Iran is also complete and that caused crude oil to drop hard. Corn, soybean and wheat prices are lower but holding in better than expected. The Funds have built a long position in the corn market, so I expect them to support and defend that long position vs selling out right away. Nitrogen prices are not going to drop right away so we still have a question about U.S corn acres this year. It looks likes May corn futures could settle back in a $4.45 to $4.60 trading range. USDA Crop Production report should not give us any surprises today as most traders are waiting for the March 31st report to give us more guidance.
Soybean prices are lower today but with crude oil down $6-$7, soybeans only down 3-4c isn’t too bad. The Funds have built themselves a rather big, long position and will defend it but buying the dips. The concern I have with soybean prices this high are we are not even close to being competitive in the World market. Over the next few weeks or couple months, I look for our exports to slow down tremendously, and we could see some reductions in our export sale number on the USDA balance sheet, giving us a little bigger carryout. High nitrogen prices right now should shift those acres in limbo over to soybeans and with Brazil harvesting a record crop, it feels like we have some decent risk in the soybean market. The 10-day moving average is a key support level I am watching this week on May soybeans.
The wheat prices are following suit and pushing a little lower here this morning too. The U.S. Dollar is lower but still trading close to 99. The U.S. is looking to get some beneficial rains in the southern wheat plains and eastern corn belt to help out the winter wheat over the next 2 weeks. The Funds have got themselves back into a neutral position in wheat and will likely stay that way until we see how the U.S. crop starts out this spring.
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