March 6, 2026
At this hour:
Corn market is up 2-3c,
soybeans are up 7-8c,
wheat is up 9-10c,
crude oil is up $3.80-$3.81,
US Dollar is down 3 points
-U.S. Central Command is not saying internally the war with Iran could last until September.
-China is negotiating with Iran to ensure safe passage of crude oil tanker and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
-Crude oil up another 4%. Lending support to U.S. grain prices.
-Weekly corn export sales eclipsed 2 MMT, well above trade estimates while soybeans and wheat were at the low end of trade estimates.
-Monty flow continues to be the chatter in the grain complex.
Look for a higher trade today to end the week.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.41 1/2 which is the 50-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.56 3/4 which is the high from January 12th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.70 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.89 3/4 which is the high from May 15, 2024.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.67 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.85 which is the high from March 2nd.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.29 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.39 3/4 which is the high from March 3rd.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.76 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $5.95 1/4 which is the high from March 2nd.
Where do we go from Here:
May corn futures took out the high from this past Sunday night. This morning, we are back up testing the high we had from the January 12th Crop Production Report. The January 12th high is significant as that was when the market pushed lower after a bearish report. It feels like the Funds are in here chasing this market and building themselves a long position going into spring planting. With crude oil prices surging due to the war with Iran, nitrogen prices are on the rise so corn acres this spring are somewhat in question. With crop insurance prices set and add on features like ECO and SCO, these programs provide a pretty good safety that should keep corn acres up there. I would guess the trade is pricing in U.S. corn acres around 94-95 million acres. Corn prices look to be well supported, and the money seems to be chasing corn this week.
July soybean futures hit the $12.00 for the first time since 2024. The Funds continue to defend their long position, buying the break. Soybean oil futures continue to drive the soy complex higher and that is mostly following crude oil. China is negotiating with Iran to ensure the safe passage of crude oil tankers and LNG tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. China receives 45% of its oil imports through the Strait of Hormuz. I feel if or when crude oil stops going up, soybeans could see a correction. The correct though should be shallow as the Funds should be there to support it on much of a break. With higher nitrogen prices, the trade is talking about a switch of a few corn acres over to soybeans, mainly in the fringe areas like the Delta and Upper Midwest.
The money seems to be pouring into the wheat complex. Fundamentals really have not changed but with the war with Iran, now saying it could last longer than everyone expected, there feel like an inflation trade happening where money is chasing commodities. This week, corn and wheat were the big winners as the Funds already have a big, long position on the books. May Kansas City wheat futures are above the $6.00 market for the first time since last July. The trend is up so I would look for breaks to be well supported.
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