March 11, 2026
At this hour:
Corn market is up 3-4c,
soybeans are up 11-12c,
wheat is up 5-6c,
crude oil is up $3.96-$3.97,
US Dollar is up 19 points
-Crude oil prices are back higher as report if Iran setting mines across the Strait of Hormuz.
-The IEA is considering what could be the largest release of strategic oil reserves to help combat higher crude oil prices.
-Rumors are floating around that under the EPA renewable fuel standard, a 5.4-billion-gallon renewable diesel/biomass-based diesel mandate combined with a 70% reallocation rule means that most waived blending obligations such as small-refinery exemptions—are redistributed back to the remaining obligated refiners, keeping the effective biofuel demand close to the original mandate.
-USDA Crop Production report did not give us any surprises with only a few minor adjustments in Global ending stocks.
Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.50 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.75 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.83 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.33 3/4 which is the high from March 9th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.39 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.72 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $5.92 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures spent most of the day lower and bounced back to close down only 1-2c yesterday. Pressure from wheat and lower crude oil kept corn lower. This morning, we are bouncing back higher. Crude oil prices are back up $4+ as talks of Iran setting mines across the Strait of Hormuz to deter tanks from passing through. It feels as the “inflation” trade is back on. The Funds have built a decent long position, and I look for them to defend that position until we get this crop planted and off to a good start. The USDA did not give us any surprises in yesterday’s report, but my 1 takeaway is they increased Global corn ending stocks again this month. This has been a trend I been watching and not an issue today but if the U.S. would happen to grow a trendline yield and another large corn crop, the increasing global stocks could weigh on the market this fall. For now, the Funds seem to want to own commodities, so breaks are supported.
Rumors are floating around that the EPA numbers for RVO’s will be out soon. There are rumors of 5.4 billion gallons of a diesel/biomass-based diesel mandate with a 70% reallocation rule which means we should keep biofuel demand close to the original mandate. This news is supportive soybean complex and got soybean up 12-13c and soybean oil up $1.80 this morning. Yesterday’s action was supportive to prices, shrugging off a lower start to the day but if we get the EPA numbers on the RVO, yes, it is friendly to the soy complex, but we need to keep feeding this market bullish news and it feels to me we are running out of new, bullish stories. Now, I am not saying I expect the market to go down, but I could see the soybean market consolidate a bit here within this week’s range.
Not much new for the wheat complex. The U.S. winter wheat areas are expected to get some beneficial rains between now and the end of March, setting that crop to be off to a good start. The U.S. Dollar is trading back above 99 but the Funds feel like they want to own commodities as an “inflation” hedge, so breaks are supported and wheat is following corn and soybeans. As corn and soybeans go, so will wheat.
