At this hour:
🌽Corn market is down 3-4c,
🌱soybeans are down 29-30c,
🍞wheat is down 1-3c,
🛢️crude oil is up $0.34-$0.35,
💲US Dollar is down 15 points
-Crude oil is higher but $3+ off its high.
-President Trump said yesterday they could delay the summit between President Xi and himself.
-NOPA crush will be out this morning. Trade estimates are for 202.725 million bushels of soybeans.
-President Trump said he expects China to help out restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
-Very cold temps are pushing into the southern wheat plains, followed up with above normal heat and generally dry. This combination could take a toll on winter wheat conditions.
-Good rains are expected for Argentina and southern Brazil.
🐂🐻 Look for a lower trade today as we start out the week of trading.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.56 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.82 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.97 3/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.38 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.49 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 1/4 which is the high from March 12th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.08 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn prices are starting out the week under a little pressure mainly coming from the soybean complex. Energy prices are a bit higher to start out the week but not as volatile as they were last week. The U.S./Iran conflict is still causing issues of getting ships through the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump is asking China with help in restoring shipping through that area. The Funds are now long 193,000+ contracts of corn so look for them to support corn futures on breaks. Argentina is looking to get some much-needed rains over the next 2 weeks which will improve their crop conditions and raise the estimates on the size of their production. After a volatile week of trading last week, this week looks to settle down and consolidate a bit.
The soybean market is taking the biggest hit, especially on old crop futures. President Trump said over the weekend he could delay the meeting between President Xi and himself, increasing the odds that the 2 countries are still a way apart on any new trade deal. President Trump is asking that China help restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as well. The Funds are long a little over 220,000 contracts of beans and with the premium built in the old crop futures and Brazil being well over $1.00/bushel cheaper than U.S. beans, we were overdue for a correction. I am watching the 10-day moving average and a close below there, could see more liquidation.
Bitten cold temps are hitting the southern wheat plains yesterday and today, followed up with very warm and dry conditions. Typically, after a cold snap, the best weather you want to see is some gradual warming temps with some rain showers. We are going to get the exact opposite. Winter wheat conditions will be closely monitored the next 2-3 weeks but for today, wheat is just a follower, and it is a risk-off trade today.
The post AgMarket.Net Early Morning Market Analysis 3/16/26 appeared first on AgMarket.Net®.
