March 19, 2026
At this hour:
Corn market is up 4-5c,
soybeans are up 4-5c,
wheat is up 6-7c,
crude oil is down $0.04-$0.05,
US Dollar is up 9 points
-Crude oil hitting $100 again overnight.
-Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and still looking for just 1 cut in 2026.
-President Trump could lift the summer gasoline regulations to help increase supplies and ease prices.
-As crude oil pushes back up to $100/barrel, the inflation trade seems to be back on and supporting commodities, especially U.S. grain prices.
-Weekly export sales will be out this morning. Here are the estimates courtesy of Reuters: corn 600,000-1,800,000 metric tons, soybeans 350,000-800,000 metric tons, wheat 300,000-550,000 metric tons and soybean meal 150,000-300,000 metric tons.
Look for a higher trade today.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.59 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.86 1/4 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.23 1/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.38 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.02 3/4 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 1/4 which is the high from March 12th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.19 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
The inflation trade seems to be back on. Funds were active buyers of U.S. grain yesterday, especially corn and wheat where they still have plenty of room to add to their long positions. May corn futures are within 8c of their high 2 weeks ago and the December corn futures is within 4c of their high. We are starting to see some private estimates for corn acres for 2026 so far, the range of estimates has been 93.5 million to 96 million acres. As December corn futures pushes up towards the $5.00 mark, I would think we will see selling pickup but if they break through the $5.00 level, we could see another run higher. I look for corn to remain supported on dips, but we will need some new bullish news to keep the Funds in here adding to their long positions.
The soybean market has been more of a follower this week. We are trading 20c or more off our lows, but May soybean futures remain over 70c off their recent highs. The July to November soybean spread continues to come under a lot of pressure and rightfully so. We are expecting an increase in soybean acres in the U.S. this spring, but we will still need to have great weather, especially in August. Old crop soybeans in the U.S. are simply too expensive for the rest of the World. Yes, we will continue to sell and ship a few but there is a good argument to be made that we could see the USDA lower their export estimate for the marketing year and increasing our carryout to more that 350 million bushels. November 2026 soybean futures are back in the $11.50 area and if we don’t have a weather issue and we grow a trendline yield soybean crop, these could be good levels to have some protection.
The hot and dry weather is starting to hit the southern plains. There have been some reports of winter kill damage after the cold temps from this past weekend and now we will crank up the heat without any moisture for a few days. Once the weather forecast starts to cool down a bit or bring in some chances of rain, I would expect wheat futures to set back a little. Funds are relatively neutral on their position in wheat so I would look for dips to be supported.
The post AgMarket.Net Early Morning Market Analysis 3/19/26 appeared first on AgMarket.Net®.
