March 23, 2026
At this hour:
Corn market is up 6-7c,
soybeans are up 5-6c,
wheat is up 7-8c,
crude oil is up $0.45-$0.46,
US Dollar is up 44 points
-Tensions in the Middle East are flaring up, keeping the inflation trade intact.
-The U.S. Dollar is trading over 100 here this morning.
-Fertilizer prices around the World continue to increase as trade flow disruption out of the Strait of Hormuz continue.
-AgMarket.net released their estimates for the Prospective Plantings report due out March 31st. We are estimating 94.4 million acres of corn, 86.1 million acres of soybeans and 44.6 million acres of total wheat.
-Funds are long over 220,000 contracts of corn and still over 200,000 contracts long in soybeans.
Look for a higher trade to start out this 4th week of March.
Support/Resistance:
May corn – Support on May corn is at $4.62 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance is at $4.76 which is the high from March 9th.
December corn – Support comes in at $4.88 1/2 which is the 10-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $4.98 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
May soybeans – Support comes in at $11.24 1/2 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $12.38 3/4 which is the high from March 12th.
November soybeans – Support is at $11.04 which is the 100-day moving average. Resistance is at $11.74 1/4 which is the high from March 12th.
May Kansas City wheat – Support is at $6.00 which is the 20-day moving average. Resistance comes in at $6.47 1/2 which is the high from March 9th.
Where do we go from Here:
Corn futures are back testing their highs they put in a couple weeks ago. This feels like more of an inflation trade as the Funds seem to be in here buying all 3 grains this morning. Crude oil is back up trading around $100 a barrel. Tensions in the Middle East continue as transportation of fertilizer out of the Strait of Hormuz could cause some issues this spring. The U.S. continues to be very competitive on corn across the World with some competition increasing from Argentina and Ukraine. Traders will start positioning themselves ahead of the March 31st crop report and we should see more private estimates out this week. AgMArket.net is projecting corn acres to come in at 94.4 million acres.
The talk in the soybean complex is we could see an announcement this week in regard to renewable fuel standards and their blending targets with biomass-based diesel blending near 7 billion credits. This would be supportive to the soybean oil complex; however, the risk is if we come in under that level and the market does not like it. The Funds continue to hold a long position over 200,000 contracts and will support the market on dips. AgMarket.net is estimating 86.1 million soybean acres this spring, which is close to a 5-million-acre increase. Soybeans still feel like more of a follower until we get an announcement from the EPA regarding the RFS.
The Funds are holding a near neutral position. Wheat prices are pushing higher here as the Funds look to build a long position. The support is stemming from fertilizer not being able to get through the Strait of Hormuz, adding concern we could see yields dip due to lack of fertility across the World. The U.S. Dollar trading back over 100 this morning should limit the upside a bit in wheat but if the Funds want to build a long position as an inflation trade, we can throw most fundamentals out the window.
The post AgMarket.Net Early Morning Market Analysis 3/23/26 appeared first on AgMarket.Net®.
