(WASHINGTON D.C.) — The season’s first survey-based yield forecasts are calling for a monster U.S. corn crop and a slightly higher U.S. soybean crop to be harvested this fall.
On Tuesday’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, USDA projects a national average corn yield at a record 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa) with 2025/26 corn production forecasted at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The yield estimate for corn was just over four bushels higher than the average trade guess.
For soybeans, USDA is projecting a national average yield estimate of 53.6 bpa. That is up 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The yield estimate was slightly above the average trade guess.
NASS also forecasts record high corn yields in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Also, if realized, the forecasted soybean yields in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia will be record highs.
On the wheat side of the balance sheet, the all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7 bpa. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. U.S. wheat supplies were reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield.
For ending stocks, old crop corn and soybean exports were higher while stocks were trimmed slightly. Old crop corn ending stocks came in at 1.305 billion bushels, down from 1.340 in July. Old crop soybean ending stocks came in at 330 million bushels, down from 350 million in the July WASDE report. New crop corn ending stocks came in much higher than the trade expected at 2.117 billion bushels while new crop soybean ending stocks were down slightly at 290 million bushels.
Today’s report also included the first NASS production forecast of the season for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, down 8% from last year. Yield is expected to average 862 pounds per harvested acre, down 24 pounds from 2024. Forecasts for apple, cranberry, grape, peach, pear and other crops are also included in the report.
On the world side of the report, one of the only notable changes was USDA increasing the 2024/25 Argentine soybean production by one million metric tons this month to 50.9 MMT. There were no changes to 2024/25 Brazilian production numbers by USDA.
View the full August WASDE Report here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0825.pdf
Hear commentary and analysis from Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, below:
