USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez told attendees at the 102nd USDA Annual Outlook Forum that only modest crop price improvements are expected in 2026, reinforcing the need for longer-term, market-driven solutions as farmers continue navigating a difficult economic environment.
Speaking during the forum, Benavidez said USDA forecasts show only small gains in staple crop prices for the year ahead.
“We see a dime increase in price per bushel for corn, beans, and wheat.”
USDA’s outlook currently projects corn at $4.20 per bushel, soybeans at $10.30, and wheat at $5.00 per bushel. While those figures represent slight year-over-year increases, they remain historically tight margins for many producers facing elevated input costs and ongoing market uncertainty.
Beyond price projections, Benavidez pointed to shifting acreage trends that reflect current profitability signals in the marketplace.
“We see that this year we’re trending more toward the soybean acreage side than we were at this time last year.”
According to USDA estimates, corn acreage is forecast to decline by nearly five million acres, while soybean plantings are expected to increase by close to four million acres. The adjustment reflects relative return expectations between crops as producers weigh fertilizer costs, global demand signals and price prospects heading into planting season.
Net cash farm income is projected to rise in 2026, but much of that increase is tied to government payments rather than stronger commodity fundamentals. Benavidez acknowledged that while federal support plays a role in stabilizing the farm economy, producers continue to signal that it is not a long-term solution.
“And I would argue, I think most of our producers agree that federal support, whether it be ad hoc, or whether it be planned long-term investments, government support is not the way out for producers. They want markets. They want increased demand.”
Benavidez emphasized that expanding demand will ultimately determine whether price prospects improve in a meaningful and sustained way. He pointed to growing global protein consumption and recent trade developments that have lowered the agricultural trade deficit forecast by roughly $4 billion as encouraging signals.
He also highlighted biofuels policy as a critical variable for the year ahead, specifically referencing the Renewable Fuel Standard and the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit.
“I do think finalization of 45Z and any changes to the RFS will be some of the major inflection points in the year as we think forward about what could change the price picture.”
As producers look toward 2026, Benavidez’s message underscored a central theme: incremental price gains alone will not be enough to fully stabilize the farm economy without broader, sustained demand growth across domestic and global markets.
